For a few months now, I have noticed a trend that is disrupting our understanding of traditional SEO. AI-generated summaries are transforming search results. A new analysis published in July 2026 by Fractl and Search Engine Land, based on over a million keywords, reveals something fascinating: search demand is not collapsing; it is simply shifting. This is a crucial distinction that changes everything for digital professionals. While some panic at the sight of declining volumes, others understand that this drop masks a much more nuanced reality. The lost volumes on certain queries are almost entirely compensated by those gained on others. This phenomenon, which I call the redistribution of demand, is at the heart of this study, which covers 35.4 billion monthly searches. In this article, I propose to dissect this data to understand where demand is really going and how to adapt your digital strategy.
Summary
29% of demand in decline: a very uneven drop across sectors
The study measures the evolution of search volume over a full year, ending in April 2026. The main finding is that 29% of high-volume searches are in measurable decline, which is 4 points higher than Gartner’s forecast. Out of 35.4 billion monthly searches, this gap weighs heavily. This figure may seem alarming, but it needs to be contextualized. The study analyzed 1,010,848 high-volume keywords, each generating at least 10,000 monthly searches, spread across 8 different sectors and covering 379 brands. This rigorous methodology allows us to understand that the decline is not uniform.
What really interests me is the sectoral variation. The decline varies significantly from one field to another 📊. FinTech records the largest drop at -37.7%, while lifestyle limits the damage to -15.2%. This hierarchy is not random: it follows the informational nature of the queries. Transactional categories, where the user seeks to compare prices or finalize a purchase, hold up better. Informational categories, where AI can provide a complete answer without an additional click, decline more.
I must emphasize that the impact directly depends on the informational intensity of the queries. When an AI can explain a drug interaction, clarify an insurance deductible, or give an overview of investment funds, search volume drops. But when it comes to comparing prices, going to a specific site, or finalizing a purchase, demand persists. It’s an unyielding logic: the more informational a query is, the more vulnerable it is to chatbots.
Demand is redistributed rather than collapsing
Here is the central point of this study, the one that truly changes the perspective: the lost volume does not disappear, it simply relocates. This is a nuance that many SEO professionals miss. Of all the tracked keywords, 40.7% are in decline with an average drop of 41%, but 20.1% are progressing at the same threshold. Fewer in number, the growing keywords each carry more volume, so the two plateaus almost perfectly balance each other.
The figures are telling 📈: about 10.29 billion monthly searches on the decline side, 10.31 billion on the growth side. The net balance is only +16.8 million searches per month. This is tiny compared to total volumes. The study summarizes it perfectly: demand has not so much decreased as it has relocated. I find this phrasing brilliant because it captures exactly what is happening. Users are not stopping their searches; they are searching differently.
This redistribution phenomenon is crucial for understanding your future content strategy. Instead of clinging to queries that are losing volume, you need to identify where demand is shifting. This is a more nuanced analytical task, but that is where the opportunity lies. Brands that understand this redistribution and adapt their content accordingly will be the ones that thrive.
Unbranded queries: first exposed to chatbots
One last lesson from the study deserves special attention: 90% of the tracked volume corresponds to unbranded queries. These are queries without a brand name, the easiest for a chatbot to absorb since no specific site needs to be reached. HealthTech and wellness are the most exposed with 99.6% and 98.5% of unbranded queries, respectively. Insurance and SaaS are less so, with 73.8% and 82%, respectively.
The difference lies in what happens after the AI’s response 🎯. When a model recommends software or a product, some internet users then search for the brand or retailer before purchasing. A query like what is a deductible finds its complete answer in the conversation, without a subsequent click. This is why sectors with a strong transactional component retain their demand better. Users still need to check prices, compare offers, and for that, they return to traditional search.
This observation leads me to recommend a strengthened branding strategy for all digital professionals. If your unbranded queries are losing volume, that is normal and predictable. But you can compensate by strengthening your presence on branded queries and building an authority that makes your brand the answer, both on Google and in a chatbot.
SEO is no longer enough: welcome GEO and AI visibility
For web professionals, the lesson is crystal clear: continuing to optimize only for queries that AI now handles better leads to a dead end. The challenge shifts to building a brand authority that makes your company the answer, both on Google and in a chatbot. This is what I call the transition from SEO to GEO, or rather the addition of GEO to traditional SEO.
The survey conducted among 1,004 American consumers supports this and is revealing 💡. 59% say they are willing to visit a brand’s site after a chatbot has mentioned or recommended it. Nearly one in five (18%) has already purchased a product on the recommendation of an AI, without verifying it through a separate search. This reflex is 2.5 times more common among Generation Z and millennials than among baby boomers. The study puts it bluntly: brand mentions in an AI response are the new ranking.
This statement changes everything. You now understand why I speak of transition. Brand mentions in AI responses are becoming as important as Google rankings. This means you need to work on your visibility in chatbots, not just on Google. How? By creating quality content that AI models will cite, strengthening your online presence, and building recognized authority in your field.
A documented shift in North America, but not yet in France
These results extend a series of analyses on the loss of organic traffic related to AI Overviews, as well as on the redistribution of traffic to surfaces like Google Discover. They especially confirm that talking about decline masks another, much more complex reality. If the total search volume remains generally stable, only its distribution changes. This is an important distinction that many professionals forget.
However, a caveat must be made, and I must clearly emphasize it 🌍. The survey concerns American consumers, and AI Overviews like AI Mode are still not available in France, even though they are expected to arrive in the summer of 2026. The observed shift primarily concerns the North American market. The study also notes that 70% of respondents use AI more, but only 17% report using traditional search less.
What reassures me is that Google remains entrenched in practices. In five years, 52% of respondents believe that Google will remain their primary search tool, compared to 20% who doubt it. Search is therefore not disappearing; it is shifting and transforming. For French professionals, this means we still have time to adapt before AI Overviews become the norm.
How to adapt your digital strategy to this new reality
Now that we understand the data, the practical question arises: how to adapt your strategy? I propose 3 areas of work. First, analyze your own traffic to identify which queries are losing volume and where demand is shifting. Use Google Analytics and Google Search Console to trace this migration. Secondly, strengthen your presence on branded queries and build recognized authority in your field. Thirdly, start thinking about your visibility in chatbots and AI models.
This last point is crucial and often overlooked 🚀. How can you ensure that your brand is mentioned in chatbot responses? By creating quality content, strengthening your online presence, building quality backlinks, and optimizing your AI strategy for search engines and AI models. This is a holistic effort that goes beyond simple Google ranking.
I also recommend closely monitoring the arrival of AI Overviews in France. When they arrive, you will already have a head start if you have begun to adapt your strategy. AI strategies will become essential to remain competitive in the digital landscape.
Conclusion
What I learned from analyzing this study is that the panic surrounding the decline in search volumes is largely unfounded. Demand is not collapsing; it is redistributing. This is a fundamental distinction that changes everything for our approach to SEO and digital marketing. The 29% of declining queries do not represent a catastrophe, but rather a transformation of the search landscape. The lost volumes are compensated by gains elsewhere, and users continue to search, simply differently.
To succeed in this new environment, you must think beyond traditional SEO. Build brand authority, strengthen your presence on branded queries, and start optimizing your visibility in chatbots and AI models. The future of digital marketing will not be one that ignores AI, but one that intelligently integrates it into its overall strategy. The data from this study shows us that we still have time to adapt, especially in France where AI Overviews are not yet available. Use this time to prepare your transition to this new reality.
In Brief
- 29% of high-volume searches are in decline, but demand is redistributing rather than collapsing
- Informational queries lose more volume than transactional queries, as AI can provide complete answers
- Brand mentions in AI responses are becoming as important as Google rankings
- You need to adapt your strategy by strengthening your brand authority and visibility in chatbots
- AI Overviews will arrive in France in 2026, giving digital professionals time to prepare
